Will RWA be the next chance for Yuan an and OKX to win?
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time：2024-09-10
Since last year's Web3 conference in Hong Kong, there have been bosses pulling together to set up exchanges. At that time, they were not optimistic about Hong Kong's licensing compliance, but studied the possibility of regional markets in Dubai and South America and RWA vertical exchanges for a long time. Of course, they also visited friends of many exchanges to learn deeply about the ecology of cryptocurrency exchanges, especially the dirty washing industry, as well as the core operation of the community head and investment. Several friends submitted their applications for licensing before the deadline at the end of March this year, and at that time they were not optimistic about Hong Kong's licensing applications and the subsequent Bitcoin ETF. Otherwise, several Hong Kong companies applying for the No. 7 exchange have withdrawn in the past few days, and it is believed that more institutions will withdraw in the future.Leaving aside the actions made by the United States against an exchange, offshore's currency security, OKX and Huobi have recently failed to pick up all kinds of tokens, while those of Hong Kong's licensed exchangesHashKey(Hong Kong Station) Compliance has no trading volume and liquidity, and there is no trading volume until the international station is launched, but it is more likely to share the stock cake from the current encrypted currency market. Is there a new opportunity in this mess?RWAWill the exchange be the next decisive opportunity for Yuan an, OKX and licensed exchanges?As we all know, at present, the original cryptocurrency exchanges are very mature, especially the series of exchanges dominated by Chinese, represented by Qian an, OKX, and Huobi; in terms of transaction scale, if Binance does not have the suicidal problem of Huobi, OKX basically has no chance to surpass it, and it is also very difficult for second-tier exchanges such as KuCoin and Gate to surpass and subvert the front-tier exchanges.Basically, it is difficult to overtake a new offshore exchange, because this game is already very mature, relying on the gray washing industry, similar to casinos, the main community head and investment marketing techniques, and the volumes played by Chinese teams can no longer be rolled up. They are all those people's tricks, which are nothing more than the difference between 50 steps and 100 steps. Make a new one, you can cut a small cake, but it's hard to surpass it.While the licensed exchange in Hong Kong is a false proposition, regulators are still those financial veterans, so-called innovative products such as STO securities tokens and spot bitcoin ETF, or traditional financial institutions vested interests, HKEx intermediaries are sharing the cake, it is impossible to really give it to the new forces of Web3 to harden.The new track's Web3 wallet, OKX and Qian'an have been around for so long, but the inscriptions, runes, stones and memecoin have not held up for a while, and there is no long period and no trading volume. Even BTC core has always been obsessed with inscriptions and runes, which makes it almost difficult to support a big new ecology.However, the Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States is much stronger than the Bitcoin spot ETF in Hong Kong. the key is whether the American Bitcoin ETF gives us a hint of whether we want to grow big or think about old money and incremental users in the real world.Taken together, Qian an and OKX have enough volume in the stock cryptocurrency market, and their only chance is not the Web3 wallet and the new memecoin, but the real-world asset monetisation of the RWA (+ DePIN) exchange / track.The next showdown between Qian an and OKX, in RWA?Why do you say that? Because the largest incremental market is in real-world assets.I once listed the figures of real-world assets in my first RWA article, and global monetary and market data for 2020 are used as a reference (USD): silver 43.9 billion, gold 10.9 trillion, equities 89.5 trillion, global debt 253 trillion, real estate 280.6 trillion, derivatives 558.5 (low) ~ 1000 trillion (high), not including the following emerging assets such as AI computing, renewable energy green, etc.Incremental market, we can recall: what is the core reason of this BTC rising cycle? Basically, I think it's because of bitcoin spot ETF. What is the core nature of ETF? The connection product between the real world and Bitcoin, ah, it is a typical RWA model product traded on NASDAQ in Chicago on the New York Stock Exchange, while spot trading of Bitcoin is caught by coinbase, directly leading to tens of billions of dollars in capital, with an incremental daily trading volume of nearly four or five billion dollars.At present, the single largest incremental market isReal-world assets, funds, and users. We have been emphasizing that the essence of RWA isEnterprise financingThe core of corporate financing isInstitutional marketThe mainstream assets and funds in the real world are in the hands of corporate and institutional markets. And RWA products, so that incremental novice users do not need complex digital wallets, in traditional exchanges, with regular credit cards or pension accounts, RWA tokens or digital assets have a professional hosting and trading platform.Return to Bitcoin spot ETF, in addition to the listed companies in the United States, the fund institutions that follow ETF, including the banks behind and the pilot investments of pension funds, etc., you only need to analyze one thing, just look at the proportion of Bitcoin ETF in its investment allocation and the asset allocation classification before entering, and you will know how much space there is behind RWA assets.When it comes to real-world assets, RWA exchanges can't do without DePIN.The combination of RWA and DePIN is an effective representation of the mapping or anchoring of real-world assets. DePIN is the infrastructure of real-world asset issuance, and its essence is the 3.0 + asset monetization of the IoT of the Internet of things. The head exchange has a DePIN track for a long time, but from the perspective of those DePIN projects in Shanghai currency, it is difficult to directly generate cash flow value according to the current WiFi or data sharing projects; but as the infrastructure of RWA asset issuance, it can directly generate RWA token value in the process of asset issuance and trading, and this RWA token cash flow can be further combined into RWA products.In real-world assets, DePIN, combined with SPV of DAO and smart contracts and encryption funds (token dividends or liquidity), can make RWA asset issuance and anchoring more chained and native (the implementation model is complex enough to talk about in detail).So let's get this straight:Offshore's head currency an, OKX and Fire coins are all native token exchanges, starting with the earliest ICO and contracts, expanding and standing in the first echelon. Offshore's target customer base is basically retail investors in currency speculation.Coinbase in the United States, which belongs to semi-offshore and semi-licensed bar, successfully caught this amount of giddy traffic when it was pinned down by the United States and passed through bitcoin spot ETF. Coinbase's customer base is relatively complex. Apart from retail investors, ETF has brought a lot of institutional customers.Hong Kong licensed Exchange HashKey (Hong Kong Station), following compliance, mainstream tokens and securitized tokens, is basically dominated by PI customers, with more and less retail restrictions, small overall trading volume, and most of them are non-currency standard, especially compliance deposit.In fact, there is also an HKEx, although the declining trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has declined, it has grabbed the dominance of the spot ETF of bitcoin in Hong Kong by means of conservative regulation, taking a group of brokerage brokers to share the meat, seriously doubting that STO will be the same. most of the target customers of the HKEx are institutional customers and PI investors, which are equivalent to traditional investors and investors who speculate in bitcoin stocks.So, do you expect any revolution and subversion in Hong Kong's licensed exchanges?We should think carefully: is the RWA exchange the only chance to attract old money with real-world assets between the offshore exchange and the licensed exchange?RWAThe key to the core of the exchangeAlthough the market space of RWA is huge, due to the cross-border or connection between the real world and the encrypted world, there is a great need for correct propaganda, popularization of knowledge, professional education, consultation, incubation, investment and so on. The future popularity of real-world asset monetization will involve a large number of migration, uplift and trading and delivery, and the RWA exchange and its ecological institutions will be the key.But the current licensed exchanges and many so-called RWA exchanges or RWA asset agreements basically only solve the problem of asset issuance, such as STO asset agreement, or NFT voucher model, or the standard and process of STO asset monetization. The practitioners have not solved the problem at present.Market structure、Market participants(2B and 2C),Original tokenAndLiquidityWait for four questions.If we learn from the experience of traditional exchanges from the perspective of RWA, the market structure of an exchange is relatively complex, from the object of the assets and both ends of the funds and the trading methods, from the classification and trading characteristics of market participants, from the layout of trading channels at different levels of the exchange, and so on.First of all, the RWA exchange should analyze well.Capital sidestrategy. First, compared with the particularity of Hong Kong stocks lies in the capital exchange between China and the United States, the decoupling between China and the United States has led to the loss of liquidity in the role of the HKEx, but from the perspective of RWA, is it possible to undertake these assets exchange funds between China and the United States, which are not put on the surface? Second, compared with ICE, CEX and LME, commodities and precious metals as real-world assets can be converted into RWA products, and the size of the spot trading, futures, options, derivatives and contracts around these assets, coupled with leveraged arbitrage funds, is unlimited. Third, similar to Didi Guan Tongao Exchange, global funds are looking for investment opportunities for cash dairy assets, from the perspective of corporate financing needs and overseas funds to pursue operating cash flow and short-term returns, which is also around the large-scale demand in the field of RWA.From the RWA ExchangeAsset sideIt is necessary to reflect the characteristics of asset scarcity, leverage and arbitrage. From the current capital preference, it is more favorable to three types of RWA assets: scarce physical assets, assets that can generate stable cash flow and efficient productive assets. Basically, real estate has been excluded, scarce physical assets such as AI computing power, green energy, efficient new materials and so on. The assets of cash cows mainly include: natural scarcity and monopoly industries, such as energy, mining, finance, public utilities, etc.; cross-economic cycles, such as consumer goods, infrastructure or utilities; efficient materials or productive assets, such as AI computing power, high-end hardware equipment, new materials, etc. From the perspective of RWA asset monetization, it may be more suitable for high-quality growth assets that have great potential to continue to generate stable free cash flow.RWA exchanges focus on incremental and industrial users, soMarket participantsIt must be different from the native cryptocurrency exchange. The participants brought by the expectation of real-world asset monetization mainly include: physical enterprises in spot transactions, similar to bills of lading and warehouse receipts; asset allocation transactions, mostly fund institutions for macro asset allocation, but why to go to the RWA exchange for allocation needs to design a good incentive mechanism Quantitative arbitrage speculative trading institutions, RWA Exchange may be more suitable for trading strategies and liquidity contracts; intermediary trading services, this is more complex, but also look at the market expansion of RWA Exchange, can attract more Broker, Dealer and Maker and so on.From the RWA ExchangeMulti-level layoutIt is also critical that the basis of the exchange is CEX+DEX, there is an AMM flow pool, and the necessary OTC blocks for industrial transactions are required. Because it involves the monetization of RWA assets, there is also L2 infrastructure, a LaunchPad asset issuance / launch platform, DePIN as a real-world asset infrastructure, and NFT as an equity bill of lading voucher, platform tokens as platform governance, trading incentives or liquidity, and DAO+Fund to assist. There are liquidity mechanisms for Liquidity or Farming.All in all, the key to the RWA exchange lies in several aspects: real-world asset issuance and listing, DePIN IoT based listing 3.0 and tokenization of real-world assets; native token governance, incentives or arbitrage on the chain, which is to attract incremental endogenous value; better promote structure and liquidity, make up for or improve the shortcomings of traditional finance or exchanges; and realize multi-level financing and trading markets.In terms of funds, we must establish smooth and acceptable channels from overseas liquidity and financing markets to attract more institutional and corporate customers; design arbitrage space based on the characteristics of RWA assets, which not only has enough asset value space, but also has incremental endogenous value; combine the combined advantages of blockchain and digital assets such as NFT, tokens and contracts to further realize the value structure of traditional stock markets, bonds, derivatives, etc., and at the same time combine the endogenous value incentives of native tokens; In the end, we will expand the financial narrative of the RWA trading platform and the financial market value of the platform tokens to achieve a "DePIN+ industrial transactions + digital IPO (RWA asset issuance)+ digital banking + digital derivatives such as industrial indices + industry/platform currencies"RWA industry blueprint.Don't be too skeptical about the scale of real-world assets. Let's not talk about commodities such as CMIC, just talk about Shandong's agricultural products electronic trading board. An electronic trading board for garlic exceeds 20 billion RMB. This is also an RWA model, based on the garlic planting cycle. Based on RW transactions such as current arbitrage, spot trading, and cold storage warehouse receipts, an electronic trading board (website +APP) is formed by leveraging and arbitrage. This thing can be easily moved to the chain, and the chain is RWA trading.I accidentally chatted too much, but I still had the opportunity to talk about the economic design model of the RWA Exchange. So, think about it now:Is there a chance for the RWA Exchange to replace the Hong Kong Stock Exchange as a connection point in future multipolarity?
